Implied Probability Calculator
Convert betting odds to implied win probability
Implied Win Probability
52.38%
You need to win more than 52.4% of the time at these odds to be profitable long-term.
Understanding Implied Probability
Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage that represents the likelihood of an outcome occurring, as suggested by the odds. Understanding implied probability is essential for identifying value bets.
The Formula
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds × 100
For American odds, first convert to decimal, then apply the formula.
Examples
- -110 odds: 1.91 decimal → 1/1.91 = 52.4% implied probability
- +200 odds: 3.00 decimal → 1/3.00 = 33.3% implied probability
- -300 odds: 1.33 decimal → 1/1.33 = 75.0% implied probability
Finding Value
A value bet exists when your estimated probability of winning exceeds the implied probability from the odds. For example:
- Odds: +150 (implied probability: 40%)
- Your estimate: 45% chance of winning
- Edge: 45% - 40% = 5% positive edge
This is a +EV bet because you believe the true probability is higher than what the odds suggest.
The Vig Factor
Remember that implied probabilities include the sportsbook's vig (margin). The true "fair" probability is slightly lower than the implied probability. Use our Hold Calculator to see how much vig is built into any market.
